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REALTORS' Expectation Versus Reality

By Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

How reliable are REALTORS®’ subjective opinions of the market outlook? At the end of 2013, for example, REALTORS®, on average, expect home prices to be 4 percent higher in 12 months. Is this forecast in-line with what economists are expecting? Does this match up reasonably close to what actually happens in the marketplace? Are REALTORS® consistently more optimistic, more pessimistic, or perhaps more random and volatile in their outlook?

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