The homeownership rate in the U.S. has fallen by a hefty five percentage points from the bubble peak of a decade ago. The latest figure of 64.3 percent is the lowest since 1995. Unfortunately, additional declines in the ownership rate should be expected over the next two years at least before stabilizing and going up.

In the past 10 years, the overall U.S. population has risen by 26 million. Renter households over this period rose by 7.5 million. In a shocking contrast, however, the number of home owning households has not increased. In fact, there are roughly a half a million fewer homeowners. Some of the population figures do not show up as renters or homeowners as they are tagging along as part of other people’s households or went straight to the basement of a parent’s home.  These depressing trends have occurred even as the economy has been officially out of recession for the past five years and as 10 million net new jobs have been added to the economy.

Examining the numbers more closely, one finds that all age groups took a hard punch to the gut, except for the elderly. The table below shows the comparisons in ownership rates by age over the key years. Naturally, those who are in their retirement years would have likely paid off their mortgage and should be enjoying the fruits of their lifetime’s work. Foreclosures therefore during the downturn were less of an issue for this age group. It is somewhat comforting to know that 80 percent of the 65-and-over crowd are homeowners, particularly in light of a recent Harvard study showing that poverty in retirement years is concentrated among the renters. The study results are not surprising since the Federal Reserve data show the median net worth of a renter to be at $5,400 while that of a homeowner is at $195,400.

The next highest age bracket are those in the near-retirement age of 55-to-64, which also show encouraging signs as nearly 77 percent are still owners. It is down from 81 percent at the peak, but still respectable to say that an overwhelming number of Americans near the retirement age are homeowners.

The ownership rate among young adults, those under 35, is the lowest among all categories. But they still have time to become owners and some actually like the flexibility of not being an owner for the time being.

The big worry should be over those in their mid-life, mid-career stage. To say that more than 40 percent of those aged 35-to-44 do not own a home should be discouraging and demoralizing. Essentially they have little to show after working for nearly two decades. In some countries, particularly among males, those who do not own by this age are said to be unmarriageable. In the U.S., delaying marriage has become more common and there is not the total cultural shutdown attitude to non-owners. Still, for better or worse, like education level, many singles judge potential partners based on ownership — at least by this stage. And the lower ownership rate could imply a lower future marriage rate.

Looking ahead, there will likely be a few more years of falling homeownership rates. The reason is different from the recent past years. It will not be because of fewer homeowners, but because of the faster rising number of renters. Due to the deep suppressed household formation over a prolonged period, the pent-up release of forming a new household will grow. Job growth and income gains will allow young people to move out of their parents’ basements. Roommates will part ways. The number of renters will grow by a strong 500,000 to 700,000 in each of the next two years. The number of homeowners will also grow by similar count. But, the statistical law of a roughly 50/50 split between renters and homeowners will still drag the overall homeownership rate lower. Over time, however, and assuming no fresh economic recession, the split between new renters and new homeowners will go back to the historical normal of 1/3 renters to 2/3 owners. Only at that point will the homeownership rate stabilize and perhaps steadily move higher.

Lawrence Yun is the chief economist for the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS®. In this exclusive, monthly column for the Power Broker Report, Yun shares his insider insights on the national and regional housing markets, and the U.S. economy at large.